Shorter journeys, less congestion and a major boost to the economy: Shropshire Council sets out powerful case for North West Relief Road in draft Full Business Case
Shropshire Council has published its draft assessment of the case for building the North West Relief Road (NWRR), which would finally complete the missing northern section of Shrewsbury’s ring road.
Known as a Full Business Case or FBC, these final assessments are required of all schemes considered for approval by the UK Government. FBCs provide updated modelling and analysis that underpin the assessment of value for money of a scheme and its benefits.(1)
Shrewsbury North West Relief Road plan
The updated draft FBC for the NWRR confirms the revised estimated cost for delivering the road – an estimated maximum of £215 million (including the cost of the Oxon Link Road) over the total 10-year lifetime of the project – and the benefits it would deliver, including reductions in journey times – based on analysis using a nationally stipulated standard.(2)
The revised draft FBC confirms the powerful case for building the NWRR, despite the rise in costs of delivery due to inflation. The benefits are driven by the fundamental role of the project in driving a number of strategic aims for Shrewsbury and surrounding areas, these being:
- Shorter journey times
- Reduced congestion in Shrewsbury and surrounding villages
- Reduced congestion on the town’s bypass and smaller rural roads
- Supporting the Shrewsbury Moves Strategy
- Attracting new investment and growing Shropshire’s economy
Value for money and impact
The revised draft FBC confirms that the NWRR would deliver an Adjusted Benefit to Cost Ratio score or the Adjusted BCR – the mechanism used by the UK Treasury to assess schemes – of 3.88 .(3) This means that for every £1 spent on the scheme, it delivers £3.88 of value back to the local economy when considering the economic benefits, and some wider benefits including increased journey time reliability and reduced air pollution. This figure does not take account of all of the wider benefits that the local NHS, police, fire service and Arriva Bus say the scheme would deliver.
The BCR score of 3.88 ranks the NWRR among those transport schemes deemed to be high value in the country when considering the benefit versus the cost of delivery.
Journey time savings and reduced congestion
A large number of vehicular journey times along various routes are modelled in the draft FBC using the prescribed national methods.(2) After the NWRR is built, journeys along a very few roads would slightly lengthen, although this is on roads that currently do not see heavy traffic, and the increase is marginal. However, the overwhelming outcome would be a significant reduction in journey times across the north of Shrewsbury as a result of having a complete ring road.(4)
When considering the overall impact on journey times across all roads across the entire day, the average single journey time across roads in the northern Shrewsbury area would be reduced by 17 minutes. This means that a typical return journey along the same route in each direction would be an average of 34 minutes less than it is currently. This is a massive saving per day with the potential to substantially improve the quality of life for many people in Shropshire, benefiting those travelling by car, while increasing productivity.
Crucially, this level of journey saving has major implications for improving bus services, making bus journeys more reliable across the entire length of a route – benefitting everyone living on that route. The benefits to public transport of the NWRR have been publicly welcomed by Arriva Bus, the primary bus operating company for Shropshire.
Major public service organisations have publicly backed the NWRR due to the benefits they see that the project would deliver for their organisation. The police, NHS, Fire service and Arriva, Shrewsbury’s largest bus service operator, have all referenced the reductions in congestion and journey times as delivering a significant positive impact for staff getting to work and people accessing their services, while people living in communities blighted by heavy standing traffic that is currently forced to run right through the heart of the neighbourhoods would see traffic levels greatly reduced.(5)
Boosting the Shrewsbury Moves Strategy
The reductions in congestion on many neighbourhood roads and roads around the town centre that the NWRR would enable support the Shrewsbury Moves strategy, designed to increase cycling and walking and improve public transport.
By reducing traffic congestion in and around the town centre, a safer and more attractive environment for cycling and walking would be created, with greater opportunity for new cycle routes. In addition, the NWRR would see a new 7km segregated cycle route constructed alongside the road to bridge the gap between existing sections of the town’s cycle route network.
Bus services would see a dramatic reduction in congestion along a number of routes they use to access neighbourhoods in the north of town. This area has among the lowest levels of car ownership in the town with more than a third of households being dependent on public transport. The increased reliability of journey times and timetabling for bus services will improve the lives of many families and make the bus a more attractive option for many other people while improving options for Park and Ride facilities.(6)
Growing the economy
Poor road links and high levels of congestion deter investment in the area by new employers who can choose anywhere to locate. They also increase the risk of existing employers moving elsewhere. While not all roads deliver increased economic activity, schemes that deliver fundamental improvements do. The NWRR would fill the gap in the incomplete Shrewsbury ring road – which is critical infrastructure for the town. The journey time savings would also make the town significantly more attractive to companies looking for a competitive location to base themselves. This is reflected in the NWRR’s high Adjusted BCR score of 3.88.(3)
The town centre of Shrewsbury has faced significant challenges from the growth in online retail over recent years. As a result, changes are being made via the Smithfield Riverside scheme, which will repurpose redundant retail space for offices, new homes and leisure.
Increasing the residential population of, and visitors to, Shrewsbury is a vital element of sustaining retail and hospitality in the town centre. More people living in the town centre will help to provide a direct customer base for retailers and maintain the town centre as a thriving destination for everyone in the area and visitors alike. Reducing traffic, congestion and air pollution is crucial to making the town centre a more attractive place to live. Modelling shows that the NWRR would enable this.
The NWRR, in tandem with the Oxon Link Road, to be delivered at the same time, is also important for increasing the number of new homes in and around Shrewsbury to make an affordable home a reality rather than a dream for local people who want to stay living in the area. Without proper supporting infrastructure, these homes are unlikely to be delivered.
Increasing Biodiversity
The biodiversity (the number of species of plants and animals present and thriving in an area) of many parts of north Shrewsbury is currently poor. Through the funding available to deliver the NWRR, the council will increase biodiversity in the area by at least 10%. It will plant circa 4 hectares of new native woodland, and invest in breathing new life into Hencote Pool, an overlooked Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) located in the area.
Commenting on the FBC, Lezley Picton, Leader of Shropshire Council says:
“The draft FBC makes the very strong case to the UK Government for support and investment in the NWRR. We have already invested £38 million of Government money to get to this stage. To fail to take the road forward now would see this investment wasted for no benefit. All other alternative options have been assessed. Numerous smaller schemes would cost more money and condemn local people to many more years of high congestion and frustration as they are built over time. All for less benefit than the NWRR provides. We need to grasp this opportunity and deliver the NWRR now.
“The Prime Minister recently commented that ‘…for too long the NIMBYs and naysayers have been able to clog up our system so things can’t get built.’ Stopping this scheme would be to stop progress; to stop the schemes that we need to grow our economy, create prosperity and properly fund our schools, hospitals and social care.
“We agree with the Prime Minister. We’ve seen how hard it is to get on and deliver a vital scheme in the face of organised opposition first-hand, even after a proper process. But we remain determined to succeed. We are ready to go, to get on and deliver.
“The council’s concern is to do what is best for local people. To grow our economy, create opportunity, and improve the lives of local people. When most ordinary people I meet talk to me about the NWRR, they tell me we should get on and deliver it. That’s exactly what I intend to do. I look forward to Council using this FBC to make the positive case we have to Government to secure the scheme’s future and to get spades in the ground as soon as possible.”
The Full Business Case, updated from the November 2024 draft as now published, will need approval from Full Council before the scheme can be submitted to Government. This update will include the most recent information around Carbon impacts and mitigation, as approved by Northern Planning Committee in January 2025, and other minor adjustments to ensure that traffic modelling is as current as possible at the time of submission.
Due to May’s local elections, the FBC is now expected to come to Council later this year.
View the webpage here.
Editor’s notes – Transport Scheme Approvals Process
1. Full Business Cases (FBCs)
FBCs have to be undertaken using strictly defined methods, as set out by the UK Government. This allows the Department for Transport and Treasury to then independently assess and compare each scheme it considers to determine whether a scheme should be approved for construction and funding. This allows for prioritisation of funding requests.
2. Journey times and traffic impact modelling
Figures for traffic impact for the NWRR have been modelled up to the year 2050 as part of the standard UK Government methodology. All UK transport schemes are assessed this way using the Department for Transport’s recommended modelling software. This allows for a standardised national standard to be applied to traffic modelling to ensure schemes are assessed in a comparable way that is objective and recognised by the UK Government.
3.Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) to assess the value for money of a scheme
While the BCR score for the NWRR is lower than the figure given in the original plans for the scheme – due to increased costs from rising inflation – the BCR score confirms that the NWRR would deliver greater benefit than many other transport projects across the country.
Benefit to Cost Ratio scores are used to assess Value for Money (VfM) under the following national criteria:
- Low VfM – if the BCR is between 1.0 and 1.5
- Medium VfM – if the BCR is between 1.5 and 2
- High VfM – if the BCR is between 2.0 and 4.0
- Very High VfM – if the BCR is greater than or equal to 4.0
Transport schemes are assessed under an Initial BCR score (accounting for criteria including economic benefits and reductions in journey times) and an Adjusted BCR score (which also accounts for wider economic benefits including reductions in air quality and improved journey reliability).
In the updated FBC just released, the NWRR has scored an Initial BCR score of 2.81 and an Adjusted BCR score of 3.88. BCR scores show the benefit for every £1 spent. A BCR score of 3.88 shows that £3.88 of benefit would be delivered for every £1 spent on the scheme.
As a comparison, Crossrail 1 in London achieved a reported Initial BCR score of 1.81 and an Adjusted BCR score of 2.66. https://learninglegacy.crossrail.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Economic-Appraisal-of-Crossrail-2005.pdf
The M54-M6 Link Road, a contemporary major approved national infrastructure project, was recently confirmed as having a score of 3.17 (https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2024-08-30/3307).
These figures demonstrate that the NWRR is comparable in benefit to recent major schemes considered high in value and scores higher than many others that have been approved.
4/5. Reduced congestion
As just one example of the positive reduction in congestion that would be seen, Smithfield Road in the town centre often has standing traffic that backs up, creating long delays. As well as cars, the road carries more buses than any other road in Shrewsbury, with 40 buses per hour using it when considering journeys in both directions. A 25% reduction in traffic is projected from modelling of the impact of the NWRR on Smithfield Road. This would equate to almost 5,500 fewer cars using this road every single day. Principally, these 5,500 journeys are not using the town centre, but are journeys between the east and west of Shrewsbury. The NWRR would mean that these journeys can far more easily be undertaken by using this road instead, improving journeys by car and bus, improving the environment in local residential neighbourhoods that currently experience long periods of standing traffic, and improving air quality to benefit the health of local people.
6.A complete inner ring road is an enabler of sustainable travel, not a barrier
A completed outer ring road would be a key enabler of sustainable travel, not a barrier to it. It underpins Shrewsbury’s plans for the Shrewsbury Moves Strategy sustainable travel plan.
Cities like York and Oxford have also developed sustainable travel plans for which a complete ring road is a key prerequisite for the strategy.
In Oxford, the local council is implementing the kind of measures that opponents of the NWRR campaign for. The existence of a complete outer ring road for Oxford is an important part of their proposals to prioritise cycling, walking and public transport. https://www.oxfordshire.gov.uk/transport-and-travel/connecting-oxfordshire/oxford-traffic-filters
